Thursday, September 22, 2011

PGA Tour Championship Pick

The PGA Tour Championship begins today at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, GA. 1.4 Million goes to the winner this weekend and an additional 10 Million would go 1 of the FinalFive if they sink the winning put on the 72nd Hole. World #1 Luke Donald, Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose and Matt Kuchar will automatically will the playoff series payout by winning in Atlanta. As far as the other 25 in the field, winning helps, but they must have a lot go their way to pull it off.

Fed-Ex Final Five:
1. Webb Simpson - Coming off 2 wins last month and a very consistent season (ten top 10s), Simpson would be the youngest winner in Fed-Ex Cup history.
2. Dustin Johnson - Johnson's win at the Barclays was some consolation for the long hitting phenom after finishing second at The Open Championship. His career thus far has been plagued by near misses at Majors while the Tour Championship would give him tremendous confidence heading into next season.
3. Justin Rose - Rose, a very sneaky player, has flown under the radar this year until his victory at the BMW last week. Tough conditions almost contributed to final round collapse but Rose was able to eek it out.
4. Luke Donald - For a player who splits his time between the PGA and European tours, he certainly deserves his World #1 ranking. In just 17 PGA tour starts Donald has 12 top 10s and leads the European Tour's Race to Dubai (Tour Championship equivalent).
5. Matt Kuchar - Without a victory this season, his 5th place ranking goes to show how consistent Kuchar is.

Winner - Webb Simpson. The hottest player on tour looks to capitalize on a phenomenal season. His stiffest competition will be Luke Donald who will rely on his success in the past when it comes to big time moments. Look for the FinalFive guys to all be there in the end.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Ranking AFC East QBs


We've seen great quarterback play in the first two weeks of the 2011 season after a tumultuous and shortened offseason. Veterans like Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are among the league leaders in Quarterback Passer Ratings, touchdowns and efficiency. We are also seeing a lot of young guys coming into form including; Matthew Stafford getting Detroit off to a 2-0 start and Rookie Cam Newton with 2 consecutive 400 yards games. A few guys, unfortunately, are having slower than desirable starts. Veterans Joe Flacco, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, products of run heavy offenses, have thrown 7 interceptions among the three and their teams are all 1-1 with many questions surrounding their offensive prowess. 

Today, although I will focus on the quarterbacks in the AFC East. Drew Brees may be the best quarterback in the league since their 2009 with Aaron Rodgers getting most of the attentions after the Packers reclaimed the Lombardi Trophy, but Tom Brady may be the best quarterback of all time and he is looking like it in the infancy of the 2011 season. 

1. Tom Brady - His 72% completion rate, 7 touchdowns and and 470 average passing yards per game puts him firmly atop the list of quarterbacks in the AFC East (and the NFL). Brady is on pace to become the second unanimous pick for MVP (he was the first unanimous MVP last season and received 49 out of 50 votes in 2007 when he won his first MVP). Brady's success has been well documented so I won't bore you with his regular season and playoff statistics. 

2. Ryan Fitzpatrick - Despite a wild first few years in the league after being drafted by the St. Louis Ram in the 7th round of the 2005 NFL Draft, Fitzpatrick had a few bright spots in St. Louis and Cincinnati that make his play this year no surprise. In his first career game in the NFL in November of 2005, Fitzpatrick led the Rams from a halftime deficit of 24-3 to an overtime victory against the Texans throwing for 310 yards and 3 TD's (sound familiar?). While with the Bengals and playing for an injured Carson Palmer he threw for 1900 yards, was third in the league in rushing yards for a QB, threw for 8 touchdowns. Since becoming a Bill in 2009, the franchise has put all their faith behind him which he should be rewarded with soon in the form of a contract extension. His 110 QB and 7 touchdowns in 2011 so far has Buffalo buzzing and thinking playoffs. After falling behind 21-3 last week against the Raiders, Fitzpatrick led a second half comeback scoring on all their offensive possessions including the game winning TD pass with just seconds remaining.

3. Mark Sanchez - While most NFL quarterbacks were running individual team mini-camps, Mark Sanchez was modeling for GQ. Albeit this isn't the reason for his slow start, the criticism he has received as been far from positive. Sanchez has one of the easiest jobs in the NFL playing on the other side of the ball of the premiere defense in the league. He's been asked in the past to simply manage the game and now it seems Rex Ryan has taken the leash off prematurely. in 32 career regular season games he has completed only 54% of his passes has thrown 34 interceptions to his 31 touchdowns and managed only a 71.1 QBR. In the playoffs, In the playoffs although, Sanchez lights it up with averaging almost 300 yards a game with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in 6 games. He he can manage not to screw up too much in the regular season and ride the coat tails of his defense, the Jets will have a good shot once they get into the playoffs.

4. Chad Henne - The Michaigan product has been under constant scrutiny since coming into the league in in 2008. The Miami Dolphins have made it perfectly clear that will always have their eyes open when it comes to finding Henne's replacement. Since Dan Marino retired, this has been an ongoing problem down in Miami (they should have signed Drew Brees back in 2006 but thought the risk was too great coming off shoulder surgery... what a mistake). Despite an impressive opening week effort against the Patriots, Henne's decision making and accuracy has always come into questions. There is no questions he has the arm strength, but doesn't seem to be able to lead the Dolphins to anything but obscurity. 

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Week 2 Preview and Predictions: V4

SD (+7) at NE - This week began with Tedy Bruschi verbally assaulting Chad Ochocinco about his tweets. Fortunately for the Patriots offense, they don't need a number 1 receiver but I expect Chad to have an improved game over last weeks 14 yard (lack of) performance. The Miami offense took advantage of a young Patriot secondary and San Diego's large receiving core, led by Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd should find similar success. Phillip Rivers is coming off a 335 yard performance and will put up similar numbers this week. I anticipate Rivers having better statisctics this week compared to Tom Brady but in a losing effort. The Patriots fans should be nice and "lubed" up for this home opener in Foxboro. NE 34 SD 28.

CIN (+3 1/2) at DEN - Kyle Orton remains the starter in Denver despite protest and billboards in support of 3rd stringer Tim Tebow. The Cincinnati defense is much less physical than Oakland and won't get the pressure on Kyle Orton that they need to in order to disrupt the offense. Orton will have a bounce back game as he will throw the ball 35-40 times without a banged up running back in K. Moreno. It looks as if Andy Dalton is healthy enough for the start and may hook up with A.J. Green for a touchdown today, but it won't be enough to win on the road at Mile High. DEN 20 CIN 10.

PHI (-3) at ATL - Franchi$eTalk Game of the Week features Michael Vick's return to Atlanta. Much has been talked about this week aregarding Andy Reids use of Vick 2 years ago in Philadelphia's blowout win against ATL. Atlanta owner Arthur Blank has thrown fuel on the fire which should ignite the explosive eagles offense. Atlanta is coming off a tough road loss to Chicago and are looking to bounce back. Only 12.4% of teams opening the season 0-2 have made the playoffs. This game will come down to Michael Turner and the Atlanta running game against a young and inexperienced front-7 for the Eagles. Casey Matthews family pedigree is well known and he will need to step it up today. Vick and the Eagles win a close one on the road. PHI 28 ATL 24.

STL at NYG - Preview and Prediction coming tomorrow.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Week 2 Preview and Predictions: V3

TB (+3) at MIN - The 0-1 Vikings are coming home to play in their first game in the Metrodome since the roof collapsed last year. With yet another aging veteran quarterback running the offense, the Vikings will look to avoid a second consecutive 0-2 start. Donovan McNabb had one of the worst performances of his career against San Diego going 7-15 for for 39 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart combined for 114 on the ground to compensate and keep the game close. Another big game from Peterson and an improved effort in the air will be enough for the win. Peterson expressed his concerns this week emphasizing the Vikings, "definitely need to get the pasing game cranked up." Tampa Bays young defense allowed 126 rushing yards to Detroit and 431 yards overall last week. Josh Freemans 259 kept the Bucs in the game with a few late scores. Tamba Bay head coach Raheem Morris "thought (they) were getting stronger at the end of the game, but obviously (they) didn't get strong enough." They'll need a much improved effort defensively to stay with Minnesotas ground game. Vikigns win at home. MIN 27 TB 17.

CLE (-3) at IND - The Colts need to face the music and realize Peyton Manning isn't coming back this year. With Kerry Collins set to make 2 million this year, he will continue to get the starts until they've dug themselves into a 0-5 hole. At that point the Andrew Luck sweepstakes will begin. A tough and speedy veteran defense will need to carry the load for the Colts this season if they want to manage respectability. Colt McCoy will need to improve on his 70.1 QBR for the Browns to be competitive in the AFC North this year. The other Peyton (Hillis) will have a solid game and I expect the Cleveland special teams and Joshua Cribbs to play a giant role in this matchup giving McCoy and the Brown short fields to work with. Cleveland wins on the road in a low scoring, boring, pathetic display of football. CLE 13 IND 6.

DAL (-3) at SF - The Lebron James of the NFL needs to have a more complete game to fulfill Jerry Jones lofty expectation for America's team. Tony Romo has vocally claimed responsibility (duh) for their opening week loss to the New York Jets. With a non existant running game Romo and the Jason Garrett led offense will throw the ball 35-40 times against San Francisco's injured defense. The Cowboys are hoping for a healthy Dez Bryant to stretch the field with Miles Austin. Jim Harbaughs 49ers thew up 33 on Seattle last week thanks to 2 return TD's from Ted Ginn Jr. Alex Smith will sturggle against a speedy Cowboy pass rush. Not quite the rivalry this once was, there will certainly be some hardnosed football played with Dallas getting its first win of the year on the road at Candlestick. DAL 30 SF 17.

HOU (-3) at MIA - Chad Henne's best game as a pro unfortunately came against Tom Brady's best game as a pro under the lights in Miami last Monday night. The "White Mike Vick," Brandon Marshall new moniker for Henne also ran for a career high 59 yards. With newly acquired factor back Reggie Bush's role still to be determined expect another pass heavy attack by the Phins. Wade Phillips new 3-4 defense with Mario Williams coming off the edge will look to spoil Miami's passing game. Arian Forster looks to be all systems go as he recovers from a preseason hamstring injury that sidelined him in game 1. The 1-2 punch of Forster and Ben Tate will be a real test for Miami's defense which is looking to rebound from a poor effort last week. I expect both teams to play well in a high scoring shootout. Miami escapes with the win. MIA 34 HOU 31.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Week 2 Preview and Predictions: V2

BAL (-6 1/2) at TEN - Baltimore travels to the music city coming off a tremendous high beating Pittsburgh at home but shouldn't take Tennessee for granted. With only 9 carries for 24 yards in Week 1, look for Chris Johnson to get 25-30 carries to lighten the load for veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Despite a balance attack, new Titan offensive coordinator Chris Painter will struggle this week against an impressive Ravens defense which forced 7 turnovers last week against the Steelers. The Titans welcome back injured D-lineman Jones and Morgan, but it won't be enough to slow down Joe Flacco. Look forward to a tight, low scoring first half with Baltimore running away with it in the second half. BAL 27 TEN 13.

GB (-10) at CAR - One of the most intriguing matchups of the week features the best and worst teams from the 2011 season. Don't expecct another huge game out of Cam Newton against Dom Capers blitz heavy defensive schemes. I am eager to see the battle between pro-bowl edge rusher Clay Matthews and Cam Newtons 4.62 40-yard escapability. Rookie quarterbacks are a measily 3-7 (Elias SB) against Dom Capers led defenses forcing 13 interceptions and 35 sacks. A strong Green Bay secondary will forced Carolina and Jonathan Stewart to pound the rock throughout the game. There's little that needs to be said about the Packers offensive. Aaron Rodgers will sling the ball all over the field for 4 quarters and put up some serious numbers. Cam Newton will look like a rookie for the first time in his NFL career as the Packers woop Carolina. GB 38 CAR 10

OAK (+3 1/2) at BUF - Oakland looked to be one of the more physical teams in their week 1 win over Denver. The Raiders speed and physicality alone will make this game a good watch. The Bills and 'Haaavad' grad Ryan Fitzpatrick are talking extension, but will need a healthy Stevie Johnson if they plan to hang big plays on the black and silver. Buffalo's defense let up 108 rushing yards to a deep KC backfield and will need to improve if they want to slow down Darren McFadden (will play with bruised shoulder). We all know traveling from the west coast to the east is a tough task especially when kickoff is at 1pm. The Bills and their new uni's continue to roll at home. BUF 23 OAK 16.

SEA (+14 1/2) at PIT - You better believe Mike Tomlin will have the black and yellow fired up for their home opener. The terrible towels will be out in full force when the Seahawks walk into the buzzsaw at Heinz Field. The aging Steeler defense was the talk of sport pundits all week as the starting 11 average 31 years of age. I expect Harrison, Polamalu and the rest of the swarm to play hard and half their age. This should be a laugher as another West coast team heads east. Tavaris Jackson, coming off a 197 yard performance against a mediocre San Francisco defense will see plenty of turf. I wouldnt be surprised if Charlie Whitehurst enters the game in the second half. Steelers win big in their home opener. PIT 31 SEA 10.

Injury Updates per ESPN and NFL Network
Sam Bradford (finger) - Limited in practice but expected to play especailly with extra day of rest
Hakeen Nicks (knee) - Expected to play
Calvin Johnson (ancle) - Expected to play
Steven Jackson (quad) -  Doubtful
Darren McFadden (shoulder) - will play
Arian Foster (hamstring) - Probable with "huge step" in practice
Santonio Holmes (knee and quad) - Probable "game day is sunday, not today"

Thursday, September 15, 2011

An Off-season to Forget for the New York Giants

What makes this league so great is the cycles. Yes there are dynasties, but winning back to back Superbowls is one of the hardest feats in sport. Since the Giants won the big game, they've slowly become overconfident and complacent and have suffered one of their worst offseasons that I can remember. This offseason was paintful and certainly the worst in my memories of the game. As of fan of the game for over 20 years, I had experience nothing but pure passion and fond memories of the NFL. The lockout didn't serve any team particularly well if at all, but most were able to rely on strong draft picks and solid free agent signings to carry them through training camps and the preseason. The lockout was like an old ex-girfriend who was hooking up with someone you knew. You wanted to know as much as you could about the progress of the negotiations while at the same time you were tired of hearing about it. Everyday there was something knew to report on ESPN, but when it came down to it you just wanted to know when it was going to end.

Once the deal was in place, It was clear this off-season would define the Giants this year and years to come. They quickly cut ties with Superbowl offensive line pillars in Rich Suebert and Shaun O'Hara. Granted age and injury were a factor but it was sad to see the loyal dogs off leash. They resigned Kevin Boothe and Coughlins son-in-law Chris Snee was still in the picture. The other key offensive departures were Eli Manning's security blanket and teddy bear in Steve Smith and Kevin Boss. It was clear at this point that the offense would not be the same. Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks and re-signed RB Bradshaw will have to carry the load and catch balls for what current players consider a not-top-100 player in Eli Manning. On the other side of the ball the G-Men are plagued by injury and controversey. First round Draft Pick Prince Amukamara has just recently taken off his walking boot while defensive ends Osi Umenyoira and Justin Tuck are sidelined. Probably the greatest hit to the once unflappable and shutdown Steve Spagnuolo defense was the season ending injury to defensive back Terrell Thomas to a torn ACL. These gaping holes were on display for all to see Sunday when Rex Grossman and the Redskins walked into the Meadowlands and had a clinic.

In week 11 the G-Men will host the Philadelphia Eagles in just their third division game. Between then and now they will face; STL, PHI, ARZ, SEA, BUF, MIA, NE, SF. In any other year I would say they will go 6-2 over this stretch with losses to only NE and PHI putting them at 6-3 heading into division play on a roll. This time around they'll be fighting a much tougher battle which may lead to the departure of Tom Coughlin when all is said and done. The Giants have a lot of work to do this season if they don't want to wind up looking up at the rest of the division.

Week 2 Preview and Predictions: V1

CHI (-7) at NO - Our hearts go out to Brian Urlacher and his family as he copes with the death of his mother. My money says Chicago's franchise inside linebacker will be back for the sunday afternoon battle in the Big Easy. Expect a Brett Favre like comeback following a death in the family effort as the Bears try to ground another NFC powerhouse offense. Drew Brees and the Saints were overshadowed last week by Green Bay, but put up some impressive numbers on a Suberbowl Defense (Brees 419 yards with 3 TD's, 81 rush yards NO). Jay Cutler looked impressive and comfortable in year 2 in the Mike Marx offense against a average Atlanta D. Matt Forte needs at least 25 touches to keep this one close. Take New Orleans as they look for their first win in their home opener. NO 31 CHI 20.

KC (+9) at DET - Todd Haley is already on the hot seat and Detroit looks to be this years underdog pick. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson look to be gellin' and a healthy Jahvid Best brings an explosive threat out of the back field, in the flat and on the screen. KC's 213 total yards against a slightly improved Bills defense won't be enough. Expect Suh to show Matt Cassell the turf multiple times. Detroit wins big at home. DET 28 KC 10.

JAGS (+9) at NYJ - The Jets will look to get off to a quick start unlike last Sunday night against Dallas. I expect Rex Ryan to have the troops ready to run downhill and stifle the Luke McCown led Jags offense. If the Jets stack the box and limit MJD to fewer than 75 yards this contest will be done early. With McCown forced to pass in the second half expect 3rd and out galore and blanket coverage by the leagues best secondary. Mark Sanchez may not toss the rock 44 times again as they will be playing with the lead but look for Burress and Holmes to have big games. Jets with at home. NYJ 24 JAGS 9.

ARZ (+4) at WASH - There's not a lot of talk about this game but I am eager to see Rex Grossman and Kevin Kolb in their second weeks with new teams. Grossman was very impressive going 21-34 for 305 yards and 2 touchdowns (albeit against a weak NYG defense). He is the clear leader of this team out to prove something in the competitive NFC East. Kolb's debut performance (18-27 for 309 yards and 2 touchdowns) was overshadowed last week by Cam Newtons 422 yards and 3 scores. Kolb looks to have acclimated well in a shortened offseason in Arizona. Tim Hightower faces his ex-team for the first time and I expect a giant effort out of the new Redskins back. Mike Shanahan's play calling will be the difference in this game. Washington goes 2-0 to open the season. WASH 20 ARZ 16.

FRIDAY
OAK (+3 1/2) at BUF

BAL (-6 1/2) at TEN

SEA (+14 1/2) at PIT

GB (-10) at CAR

SATURDAY
TB (+3) at MIN

CLE (-3) at IND

DAL (-3) at SF

HOU (-3) at MIA

SUNDAY MORNING
SD (+7) at NE

CIN (+3 1/2) at DEN

PHI (-3) at ATL

STL at NYG